Explainer: Why U.S. nuclear deterrence tops S.Korea’s agenda for Biden summit

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20/05/2022 01:04

(Repeats story first carried on Thursday)
    By Josh Smith
    SEOUL, May 19 (Reuters) - At the top of South Korean
President Yoon Suk-yeol’s agenda for his first summit with U.S.
President Joe Biden this weekend will be strengthening American
“extended deterrence” against North Korea, according to Yoon's
security advisers. 
    The term means the ability of the U.S. military,
particularly its nuclear forces, to deter attacks on U.S.
allies.
    The issue came to the forefront during the campaign that led
to Yoon's election in March, driven by concerns over North
Korea's increasing missile and nuclear capabilities.
    Here's what Yoon's team wants from Biden, and why extended
deterrence has become a dominant security issue for Seoul:
    
    WHY SOUTH KOREA'S FAITH IS SHAKEN
    In 1958, the United States deployed tactical nuclear weapons
to the peninsula. It pulled them out in 1991, but has continued
to extend its "nuclear umbrella" to South Korea by vowing to use
all of America's capabilities to defend against an attack.
    That promise is aimed not only at protecting South Korea,
but at making it unattractive for Seoul to pursue its own
nuclear weapons to counter the North.
    The United States also stations more than 28,500 troops in
South Korea, along with tanks, helicopters, anti-missile
batteries, and other conventional weapons.
    Yoon's concern comes after faith in the U.S. commitment to
defend South Korea was shaken under former U.S. President Donald
Trump, who demanded Seoul pay billions more to support U.S.
troops. That led to stalled negotiations that were only resolved
under Biden.
    Trump also repeatedly proposed withdrawing U.S. troops from
South Korea, former Secretary of Defense Mark Esper said in a
memoir released last week.
    The American withdrawal from Afghanistan and debate over its
support for Ukraine have also sparked discussions on the need
for South Korea to boost its own capabilities, including whether
it should pursue its own nuclear programme.
    
    WHAT SOUTH KOREA PROPOSES
    During the campaign, Yoon suggested the U.S. could redeploy
its tactical nuclear weapons to Korea, but later backtracked.
    His team has since asked Biden to permanently deploy U.S.
“strategic assets” such as submarines, aircraft carriers, and
bombers to the Korean peninsula.
    Yoon says he would "normalise" the joint military drills
with the United States that were scaled back under outgoing
President Moon Jae-in, in a bid to placate Pyongyang and resume
stalled talks to rid the peninsula of nuclear weapons.
    Yoon has also reactivated an “Extended Deterrence Strategy
and Consultation Group” with the United State that hadn’t met
for years. 
    The nuclear umbrella promise is not included in the two
allies' mutual defence treaty. Instead, every year the U.S.
defence secretary issues a joint communique with their South
Korean counterpart committing to use the "full range of U.S.
defence capabilities, including nuclear, conventional, and
missile defence capabilities" to extend deterrence to South
Korea.
    On Tuesday, the conservative Chosun Ilbo newspaper said the
war in Ukraine proves that "nuclear weapons can only be deterred
by nuclear weapons" and called on Biden and Yoon to discuss
"practical" preparations for a North Korean nuclear attack.
    However, in a survey to be published in an upcoming Journal
of Conflict Resolution, only 27% of South Koreans asked
supported a U.S. nuclear response if North Korea used nuclear
weapons against the city of Busan. Nearly three quarters of
South Koreans surveyed in a separate poll in February favoured
the country developing its own nuclear weapons. 
    
    WHAT IS THE U.S. POSITION?
    Washington has been coy about any plans to permanently
deploy strategic assets, and analysts say such a move may be
unlikely.
    "These need not be permanent to be useful and are best
viewed as a rheostat where they can turned up or down, and be
brought in when needed," said Terence Roehrig, a professor of
national security at the U.S. Naval War College, noting that
deterrence measures must be calibrated not to inflame tensions.
    Washington insists its commitment to South Korea’s defence
is “iron clad.” 
    U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan told a briefing
on Wednesday that the United States is prepared to make both
“short- and longer-term adjustments to our military posture as
necessary to ensure that we are providing both defence and
deterrence to our allies in the region and that we’re responding
to any North Korean provocation,” without elaborating.

 (Reporting by Josh Smith. Editing by Gerry Doyle)
 ((JoshSmith1@thomsonreuters.com;))