Live Markets: Shake up in presidential race leaves Wall Street with many questions

Siebert Financial

22/07/2024 18:29

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      Nasdaq rallies ~1.5%, S&P 500 up ~1%, Dow rises modestly
    

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      Tech leads S&P 500 sector gainers; Energy weakest group
    

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      Dollar, bitcoin edge up; gold, crude slip
    

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      U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield edges up to ~4.26%
    

  
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    SHAKE UP IN PRESIDENTIAL RACE LEAVES WALL STREET WITH MANY
QUESTIONS
        U.S. equities were higher on Monday with markets
appearing to react positively to U.S President Joe Biden's exit
from the election campaign and his endorsement of Vice President
Kamala Harris to be his party's candidate for the White House. 
    But even though Democrats had been urging Biden to make this
decision for weeks, Wall Street commentators reacted cautiously 
and pointed out many unknowns ahead. Here's a few reactions. 
   Mark Malek, CIO at Siebert Financial, is awaiting polling
data, and clarity on policies Democrats will now campaign on
although he's inclined to assume Harris would pursue policies
similar to Biden's.
    "All in all, it is too early to tell how this latest news
will impact markets in the future. In this temporary vacuum, we
must assume a base case of the prevailing “Trump trade” versus 4
more years of current policy," Malek wrote.
    At Glenmede, strategists Jason Pride and Michael Reynolds
say Biden's replacement may have a similar focus but "there may
be differences in key details that investors will want to stay
attuned to regarding issues like taxes, trade and immigration." 
    Even in "normal" election years (if there is such a thing)
they point out that volatility rises with the CBOE Volatility
Index  .VIX  increasing 40% on average in the 50 days before
Election Day going back to 1990. But given the extra uncertainty
of a major party nominee being replaced late, "expectations for
volatility may be even greater than normal," they said.
    At Wells Fargo, Michael Pugliese and Aubrey George say that
the dust needs to settle before polls can capture voter
sentiment. So they cautioned "against jumping to conclusions"
and made no major changes to their economic forecasts.
    But then Jay Woods, chief global strategist at Freedom
Capital Markets, wrote that the market's real drivers are still
the same, even though all eyes may be glued to the election
campaign's "moment to moment" changes. 
    "At the end of the day, it is the Fed and fiscal policy that
will drive the markets. The market doesn’t care about your
politics," Woods said.
    
    (Sinéad Carew)
     *****      
    
    
    FOR MONDAY'S EARLIER LIVE MARKETS POSTS:
    
    A QUICK CHAT ABOUT THE GROWTH OF AI - CLICK HERE
    
    MORE UNCERTAINTY FOR BIOTECHS AS BIDEN BOWS OUT - CLICK HERE
    
    NASDAQ, S&P 500 GAIN WITH U.S. POLITICS IN FOCUS - CLICK
HERE
    
    NASDAQ COMPOSITE: INTERNAL MEASURE HITS HURDLE, NOW WHAT? -
CLICK HERE
    
    SMALL CAPS COULD KEEP GOING - CLICK HERE
    
    ARE THE DAYS NUMBERED FOR JULY'S ROTATION TRADE? - CLICK
HERE
    
    WHY A SOFT DOLLAR POLICY IS DIFFICULT - DEUTSCHE BANK -
CLICK HERE
    
    STOXX AT THE OPEN: AIRLINES GROUNDED, TECH UP - CLICK HERE
    
    EUROPEAN STOCK FUTURES RISE, SHAKE OFF BIDEN - CLICK HERE
    
    WALL STREET IN MEASURED MOOD AS BIDEN BOWS OUT - CLICK HERE