Analysis: With largest test yet, N.Korea's ICBM programme hits new heights
25/03/2022 07:17
* First full-scale ICBM test since 2017
* Massive rocket puts most of the world in range
* Tests expand capabilities, boost reliability - analysts
* N.Korea leader says new missile strengthens nuclear
deterrence
By Josh Smith
SEOUL, March 25 (Reuters) - North Korea's resumption of
long-range missile tests - including a flight of its
largest-ever weapon - puts it closer than ever to having a
reliable way of delivering multiple nuclear warheads anywhere in
the United States, analysts say.
North Korea's latest launch was the Hwasong-17, a huge new
intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), fired on Thursday in
a test that leader Kim Jong Un said was designed to demonstrate
the might of its nuclear force and deter any U.S. military
moves. urn:newsml:reuters.com:*:nL2N2VR2VM
It was the first full-scale ICBM test launch since 2017.
There were two launches in February that U.S. officials said
were preliminary tests of the Hwasong-17. urn:newsml:reuters.com:*:nL3N2VR2NM
With a range that the Japanese government said probably
exceeds 15,000 km (9,320 miles), the missile could strike
targets anywhere in the world outside of a few countries in
South America and parts of Antarctica.
That range - and its massive size - suggest North Korea
plans to tip it with multiple warheads that could hit several
targets or deploy decoys to confuse defenders, analysts say.
North Korea's smaller Hwasong-15 ICBM, tested in 2017, can reach
any part of the United States, but cannot carry as large of a
payload.
"Since there aren't any good targets farther away, this
missile is likely about carrying more weight — in the form of
multiple nuclear warheads," said Melissa Hanham, a researcher at
Stanford University's Center for International Security and
Cooperation (CISAC) in California. "This makes U.S. ballistic
missile defence even more difficult to achieve."
Along with other new weapons such as hypersonic missiles,
smaller nuclear warheads, and drones, North Korean leader Kim
Jong Un has made deployment of a 15,000km-range ICBM with
multiple warheads a goal.
"The offensive arithmetic will be in their favour soon; they
may be able to keep up with advances in American defences," said
Ankit Panda, a senior fellow at the U.S.-based Carnegie
Endowment for International Peace.
U.S. officials have predicted such advancements, and last
year selected Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman to compete to
build a Next Generation Interceptor (NGI) designed to shoot down
missiles from "rogue nations" such as North Korea and Iran, said
Thomas Karako, the director of the Missile Defense Project at
the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).
"This (new missile) gives North Korea more options," he
said, noting that the longer range could also allow it to be
fired at the United States using more indirect flight paths,
potentially confusing defenders.
South Korean president-elect Yoon Suk-yeol has vowed to
boost missile defences to counter North Korean weapons, and has
suggested that developing a preemptive strike capability may be
the only way to prevent a missile attack.
'CREDIBLE DETERRENCE'
The "lofted" tests North Korea has conducted, which send
missiles high into space rather than far away, help confirm some
elements of the system, such as full engine burns and staging.
But other elements, such as accuracy and the survivability of
the reentry vehicles that would carry a nuclear warhead, remain
less verifiable in such tests, said Joseph Dempsey, a defence
researcher at the International Institute for Strategic Studies.
"Typically there would be dozens of partial and full flight
tests through a full spectrum of operational parameters before a
system is accepted and mass produced for service," he said,
noting that North Korea faces diplomatic and geographical
constraints on long-range tests. "However, even limited
successful tests can still provide enough minimal credible
deterrence value."
For instance, lofted tests expose reentry vehicles to much
more heat and stress than a normal attack trajectory, meaning
they might not survive or perform as designed. North Korea said
it fired Thursday's missile "in a vertical launch mode" to
ensure the safety of neighbouring countries.
Rachel Minyoung Lee, with the Washington-based 38 North
programme that monitors North Korea, said Pyongyang's goal seems
to be to strengthen its leverage so it can turn denuclearization
talks into nuclear-reduction talks.
"The message of the North Korean readout of yesterday’s ICBM
launch is clear: North Korea will continue to develop its
nuclear arsenal," she said.
A MISSILE THAT'S TOO BIG?
The Hwasong-17 had already been unveiled at military parades
and defence expos, giving experts a good idea of what to expect.
Thursday's launch revealed for the first time, however, that
the Hwasong-17 was launched directly from its massive
transporter, erector, launcher (TEL) vehicle, which has 11
axles.
Previous North Korean ICBMs were transported and raised by
such vehicles, but then usually fired from detachable platforms.
TELs make it easer to conceal missiles until they are deployed
for use, but Panda said the Hwasong-17 is so large there could
be serious concerns about its operational practicality.
"There's a reason that no other country has ever decided to
deploy a liquid-fuelled missile that’s this big on a road-mobile
launcher: it’s unsafe and operationally unwieldy," Panda said,
while noting North Korea seems to accept the risk. "A silo,
which might make more sense for a missile this size, would be
strategically worse for the North Koreans given its
vulnerability to prompt preemption."
The next step for North Korea would be building solid-fuel
missiles, which are more stable and can be launched with almost
no warning or preparation time.
(Reporting by Josh Smith. Editing by Gerry Doyle)
((JoshSmith1@thomsonreuters.com;))