Analysis: More Chinese women delay or give up on having babies after zero-COVID ordeal

Goodbaby International Holdings

09/08/2022 24:00

* China's demographic downturn shows signs of accelerating
    * China population seen shrinking in 2023, India to overtake
China
    * Women in China least willing to have babies globally -
survey
    * Strict COVID-19 policies add to existing disincentives

    By Farah Master, Albee Zhang and Casey Hall
    HONG KONG, Aug 9 (Reuters) - Seeing Chinese authorities
exercise extraordinary powers during a stringent COVID-19
lockdown in Shanghai earlier this year altered Claire Jiang's
life plans: she no longer wants to have babies in China.
    During the April-May lockdown, the hashtag "we are the last
generation" briefly went viral on Chinese social media before
being censored.
    The phrase echoed the response of a man who was visited by
authorities in hazmat suits threatening to punish his family for
three generations for non-compliance with COVID rules.   
    "That really resonated," said Jiang, who internalised the
man's remark as her own answer to the motherhood question.
    "I definitely don't want my children to have to carry the
uncertainty of living in a country where the government can just
come to your door and do whatever they want," said the
30-year-old, who works in the media industry.
    Studies have shown that pandemics and economic uncertainty
historically weigh on birth rates around the world. 
    But, particular to China, its uncompromising "zero-COVID"
policy of promptly stamping out any outbreaks with strict
controls on people's lives may have caused profound damage on
their desire to have children, demographers say.
    Accounts of people losing income or not having access to
healthcare or food, or of authorities forcefully entering homes
to take people to quarantine centres, including elderly and
children, abounded during lockdowns in Shanghai and elsewhere. 
    Demographers say people's feelings of losing control over
their lives from events like those can have major consequences
on parenthood goals.
    "China is obviously big government and small family," said
prominent Chinese demographer Yi Fuxian. "China’s zero-COVID
policy has led to a zero economy, zero marriages, zero
fertility." 
    China's National Health Commission and its Family Planning
Commission did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
    Chinese authorities have repeatedly said zero-COVID is
necessary to save lives, pointing to the millions of deaths
around the world compared to only 5,226 officially reported in
China since the start of the pandemic.
    
    BAD SIGNS
    A July United Nations report predicts China's population of
1.4 billion may start to decline as early as next year, when
India will overtake it as the world’s most populous country. 
    U.N. experts now see China's population shrinking by 109
million by 2050, more than triple the decline of their previous
forecast in 2019. 
    A separate U.N. China report said the pandemic had a
long-term impact on first births, with women citing financial
insecurity, unsubstantiated worries about COVID vaccines
affecting foetuses, along with difficulties in carrying a
pregnancy and taking care of an infant under heavy restrictions.
    "Couples that may have been thinking about having a child in
the next year, definitely postponed those. Couples that really
weren't sure, have postponed indefinitely," said Justine
Coulson, the U.N. Population Fund Representative to China. 
    New births are set to fall to record lows this year,
demographers say, dropping below 10 million from last year's
10.6 million babies - which were already 11.5% lower than in
2020. 
    Official 2022 population data is not expected until early
next year, but some places in China have published worrying
statistics in recent weeks.
    Screening for birth defects - a reliable proxy for
birthrates - in China's third most populous province Henan fell
9.5% year-on-year in the first six months. 
    Cities elsewhere reported double-digit drops in new birth
certificates. Jiaozhou, a city of 1 million in Shandong
province, saw a 26% drop in the first six months. Hukou, in
Jiangxi province, saw a 42% dive.
    Corporate earnings statements also provide some hints:
formula maker Ausnutria Dairy  1717.HK , diaper producer
Aiyingshi  603214.SS  and Goodbaby  1086.HK , which makes cribs
and strollers, are among firms citing China's falling births as
factors leading to losses in the first half of the year.
    None of those figures reflect the impact lockdowns such as
those in Shanghai and elsewhere had earlier this year.
    But demographers say they do offer a glimpse into how
COVID-19 restrictions in 2020 and 2021 affected births and
expect 2022 to be worse.
    Demographer Yi collated data on infants tuberculosis
vaccines, marriage registrations and searches for maternity and
baby products on Baidu, China’s main search engine. He estimates
COVID will result in 1 million fewer births in 2021 and 2022
combined, and 2023 could be even worse.
            
    ROOT CAUSES
    China, which imposed a one-child policy from 1980 to 2015,
has officially acknowledged it is on the brink of a demographic
downturn. 
    Its fertility rate of 1.16 in 2021 was below the 2.1 OECD
standard for a stable population and among the lowest in the
world. 
    Over the past year or so, authorities have introduced
measures such as tax deductions, longer maternity leave,
enhanced medical insurance, housing subsidies, extra money for a
third child and a crackdown on expensive private
tutoring. urn:newsml:reuters.com:*:nL1N2OZ17U
    Still, the desire for Chinese women to have children is the
lowest in the world, a survey published in February by
think-tank YuWa Population Research showed.
    Demographers say measures taken so far are not enough. They
cite high education costs, low wages and notoriously long
working hours as issues that still need to be addressed, along
with COVID policies and economic growth concerns. 
    A key root cause of low birth rates, according to Peter
McDonald, professor of demography at University of Melbourne, is
gender inequality, where China is ranked 102nd out of 146
countries by the World Economic Forum.
    Jiahui Wu, a 25-year-old financial analyst, said society's
standards for a good mother were strict.
    "It seems much easier to be a good father," she said. "I
prefer to have a good career."

 (Reporting by Farah Master in Hong Kong, Casey Hall in Shanghai
and Albee Zhang in Beijing; Additional reporting by Kiki Lo and
Xiaoyu Yin; Editing by Marius Zaharia and Lincoln Feast)
 ((farah.master@thomsonreuters.com; +852 3462 7709;))