Graphic: A (markets) journal of the plague year
31/12/2020 12:55
(Updates story published on Dec 20 with final year-end numbers)
By Marc Jones and Ritvik Carvalho
LONDON, Dec 31 (Reuters) - Last December, the first
infection with the new coronavirus was reported to the World
Health Organization. Twelve months later, as the charts below
show, global financial markets have been on a roller coaster
like no other.
JANUARY JITTERS
The coronavirus wasn't even the first thing that spooked the
markets this year. The tone was set when an escalation of an oil
market turf war between Saudi Arabia and Russia sent oil prices
crashing more than 5% on Jan 8.
Just days later, though, China's stock markets .CSI300
began to fall as a cluster of more than 50 pneumonia cases in
Wuhan city sparked a warning from the WHO that there could be a
new SARS-like virus. urn:newsml:reuters.com:*:nL8N29E03R urn:newsml:reuters.com:*:nL4N2950XW
Oil continued to fall as traders began worrying about a drop
in Chinese demand, but other major markets were not seriously
affected until mid-February, when it became clear the virus was
rapidly spreading out of Asia.
Cue carnage. From Feb. 20 to March 24, as Europe's big
economies locked down, MSCI's 49-country world share index
.MIWD00000PUS lost more than a third of its value,
haemorrhaging a staggering $18 trillion.
Wall Street's S&P 500 .SPX , Dow Jones .DJI and Nasdaq
.NDX slumped 35%, 38% and 30% respectively. London and
Frankfurt's internationally exposed FTSE .FTSE and DAX
.GDAXI markets dropped 35% and 40%. Japan's Nikkei fell 30%
.N225 . Chinese stocks saw a more modest 16% drop.
"In retrospect, I felt I was one of the villagers in the boy
who cried wolf story," said Ben Inker, head of asset allocation
at investment firm GMO.
"We had seen a number of potential pandemics never really
develop ... we were assuming that this was going to be
contained, and when it didn't we understood why the world was
freaking out."
For reference, the record quarterly drop for Wall Street was
40% in 1932, the onset of the Great Depression. The fact that
the S&P and Dow were at record highs in mid-February made the
crash this time seem more brutal.
MARCH MADNESS
Governments were already trying to shore up their economies,
but just as in the financial crisis a decade previously, it took
powerful central bank medicine to steady the markets.
The Federal Reserve's move to cut U.S. interest rates to
zero in mid-March initially had zero impact, but once it opened
new swap lines to keep money markets flush with dollars and the
European Central Bank and other big central banks arrived with
their own measures, the rout eased.
The amount of money and effort thrown at the problem has
been unprecedented.
Bank of America calculates that central banks have spent
$1.3 billion an hour buying assets since March and made 190
interest rate cuts this year, which works out to four every five
trading days. Global debt is approximately 400% of world gross
domestic product, compared with around 280% after the financial
crisis in 2009.
As well as fuelling the monster market rebound, JPMorgan
estimates the central bank moves have left nearly $35 trillion,
or 83%, of all richer, developed nations' government debt with a
negative yield once inflation is factored in.
It means investors are effectively paying for the privilege
of lending to those countries. Germany's finance ministry, for
example, says it has earned more than 7 billion euros ($8.51
billion) from issuing new bonds this year.
RECORD PLUNGE
Locking down much of the world economy has not been easy.
By April the International Monetary Fund was forecasting
global growth would to fall to minus 3 percent, a 6.3 percentage
point downgrade from its January estimate. Its latest forecast
is for minus 4.4% for the year. "This makes the Great Lockdown
the worst recession since the Great Depression, and far worse
than the Global Financial Crisis," it has said.
Unemployment and global debt levels have also surged, and
the World Bank warns global extreme poverty is set to rise for
the first time in over 20 years.
It could push an additional 88 million to 115 million people
below the breadline this year and as many as 150 million by the
end of next year.
APRIL FALLS
Stock markets were beginning to recover in April, but the
shocks did not stop. Oil went negative for the first time ever
CLc1 , dropping as low as minus $40 a barrel, as oil producers
began to fear storage capacity could run out.
It did not last long, though. By the end of April it was
back up to almost $20 a barrel and is now back above $50 - a
220% gain for anyone brave enough to dive in - although it is
still down nearly 25% for the year as a whole.
WINNERS AND LOSERS
A breakdown of the best- and worst-performing stocks also
tells the story of the pandemic, which has now claimed nearly 2
million lives.
Malaysian rubber glove maker Supermax SUPM.KL and Korean
pharmaceutical firm Shin Poong 019170.KS have rocketed roughly
780% and 1,600% respectively.
The boom in working from home and video chat has lifted Zoom
ZM.O 420%. Moderna MRNA.O , one of the drug firms delivering
a vaccine, is up over 470%, sit-on-your-sofa stocks like Netflix
NFLX.O and Amazon AMZN.O have jumped 62% and 77%
respectively.
The other big trend of the year - electric cars - has seen
Tesla surge 730% TSLA.O and its rival Nio NIO.N charge up
over 1,000%.
At the other end, cruise ship company Carnival CCL.N has
lost 57%, scores of airlines ICAG.L , travel firms and
retailers have been battered, and aircraft-engine maker Rolls
Royce RR.L has been pummelled over 50% for the year.
EMERGING HOPE
Major currencies have also seesawed. The safe-haven dollar
=USD surged up until the mid-March turnaround but is now down
7% for the year and 6% since late September, whereas the euro
EUR= and yen JPY= are up roughly 10% and 5%.
Sweden's crown SEK= is the top 2020 performer with a near
13% jump. A 6.5% surge for China's yuan CNH= will be one of
its best year's, too. But there is still plenty of pain in
emerging markets.
Brazil's real BRL= is down 22%. Russia's rouble RUB= -
one of last year's top performers - is down 17% despite a bounce
and near bullet-proof balance sheet. Turkey's lira TRY= has
climbed off record lows but is still down 19%. Mexico's peso
MXN= and South Africa's rand ZAR= are both down 4% to 5%,
although they were down 14% and 20% respectively at the end of
September.
NOVEMBER REIGNS
November was also key. First came the U.S. election defeat
for Donald Trump, which raised hopes some of the global trade
tensions would ease. Then days later came the long-awaited news
that one of main vaccine hopes had proved over 90% effective in
protecting people from COVID-19.
That double boost saw a record 12.6% monthly leap in the
MSCI world stocks index, adding approximately $6.7 trillion - or
$155 million a minute - to the value of world equities.
It is still going. Stocks are now up over 14% for 2020 and
70% off their March lows .MIWD00000PUS . U.S. and German
government bonds and corporate debt have all returned between
10% and 14%, gold is up 24% XAU= , while the super-sized FAANG
tech stocks group are up over 100% and cryptocurrency Bitcoin
more than 300%. BTC=BTSP
"The 2020 stock rally from lows is now bigger than 1929,
1938, 1974; high prices clashing with positioning (is) verging
on greedy bullish," BofA analysts wrote in note pointedly titled
'Frankenbull'.
<^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Stress episodes for emerging market capital flows https://tmsnrt.rs/36psQ6i
COVID-19 winners and losers https://tmsnrt.rs/340bMCj
January jitters https://tmsnrt.rs/2KDTIXH
Trillion dollar carnage https://tmsnrt.rs/2LNVDtx
Speed, severity of coronavirus selloff eclipses previous market
dislocations https://tmsnrt.rs/3r6XSYV
G4 policy rates nearly sub-zero https://tmsnrt.rs/3mDnXf3
Global GDP growth https://tmsnrt.rs/37PBVEV
The 2020 oil price crash https://tmsnrt.rs/2LLWZVI
Central bank balance sheets swell https://tmsnrt.rs/3lBm7KY
Global debt on the rise https://tmsnrt.rs/2VBwILx
The rise of China https://tmsnrt.rs/2J3eGz2
2020: world stocks vs. a pandemic https://tmsnrt.rs/2J6aQoU
Dollar retraces after swap lines ease funding crunch https://tmsnrt.rs/2WE9y7P
World annual unemployment soars in 2020 https://tmsnrt.rs/3r4Gcxc
Global stock market scorecard 2020 https://tmsnrt.rs/3p4VfoR
Electric (vehicle) dreams https://tmsnrt.rs/3rcB0as
Global FX moves in 2020 https://tmsnrt.rs/3o3wGbM
A (markets) journal of the plague year https://tmsnrt.rs/2KNpCBy
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^>
(Additional reporting by Dhara Ranasinghe and Thyagaraju
Adinarayan in London; editing by Philippa Fletcher, Larry King)
((marc.jones@thomsonreuters.com; +44 (0)20 7513 4042; Reuters
Messaging: marc.jones.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net Twitter
@marcjonesrtrs))