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The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.

By Neil Unmack

- Ferrari RACE.MI has joined the electric era, and investors seem to hate it. The prancing horse lost around €3.3 billion worth of market value after unveiling its battery ride, dubbed the Luce, which has been criticised by internet trolls and even an Italian government minister. While it adds to the fears that an electric revolution will be tough for luxury supercars, CEO Benedetto Vigna needn’t panic just yet.

Ferrari’s new Luce is a pivotal moment for the €50 billion Italy-based group, and the luxury car sector in general. The big question is whether people who pay hundreds of thousands of euros for growling gas-guzzlers will also shell out for electric versions. If not, prices may fall, and secondhand values may depreciate, which will damage the brand.

Ferrari’s Luce in many ways seeks to tackle a lot of those fears. For speed freaks, it can reach 100 kilometers an hour in 2.5 seconds, and a sound amplification system within the car gives a combustion-engine style roar. Yet the design, which was outsourced to Apple design guru Jony Ive and Marc Newson, has drawn critics: besides internet trolls, Italian Transport Minister Matteo Salvini lambasted the €550,000 price tag and said it was "anything but a Prancing Horse car". Luca di Montezemolo, a former Ferrari CEO, said it should be stripped of the Ferrari badge. More worryingly, the five-seater, four-door body, devoid of Ferrari's signature curves, has drawn comparisons to the mass-market runabout Nissan Leaf.

The market reaction is even more critical, as seen in an 8% share slide on Tuesday. That seems excessive. Analysts expect the group to sell 1100 EVs by 2030, as per Visible Alpha, implying around €600 million of revenue, using the Luce’s €550,000 price tag. Given Ferrari’s current multiple for that year is over 5 times sales, the over €3 billion value loss implies minimal sales of the car. Alternatively, investors may be fearing that lukewarm demand will see Luces hit the market and then plummet in value, weakening the Ferrari brand.

In practice, the Luce is unlikely to be a write-off. Die-hard Ferrari fans will want to own every model, even those they don’t love, in order to qualify for the ultra high-end supercars. And the new Luce may well appeal to some buyers who don't buy traditional Ferraris, think Silicon Valley executives. The first reaction may not be a good guide: Ferrari’s successful SUV, the Purosangue, wasn't initially a hit with investors, notes RBC.

Moreover, Ferrari is unlikely to be in the position of having to sell electric vehicles at any price. The group recently scaled back its EV targets, and its factories can switch between manufacturing different engine types, notes Bernstein. European rules banning fossil fuel cars have been deferred, and Ferrari has other ways to cut emissions, such as using greener parts, and hybrids.

Still, Ferrari is now trading at just over 28 times forward earnings, as per LSEG, down from over 40 times a year ago. That gradual deflation reflects fears over how quickly the group can keep growing, and whether luxury sports cars continue to thrive in the EV world. On that, the Luce, which means “light”, leaves most people in the dark.

Follow @Unmack1 on X

CONTEXT NEWS

Shares in Ferrari fell 8% on May 26, after the group unveiled its first electric vehicle dubbed the Luce.

Ferrari shares were up over 1% on May 27, at 287.75 euros.


(Editing by Aimee Donnellan; Production by Streisand Neto)

((For previous columns by the author, Reuters customers can click on UNMACK/neil.unmack@thomsonreuters.com))

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