U.S. natgas futures fall to 3-week low on rising output, less cold (updated)
10/02/2022 15:33
(Adds latest prices, EIA storage report)
Feb 10 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures fell almost 3% to a three-week low on Thursday as output
recovers from last week's freeze and on forecasts for less cold and lower heating demand over the next
two weeks than previously expected.
That price drop came despite a storage draw last week that was much bigger than usual for a fourth
week in a row due to a cold start to 2022.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said utilities pulled a massive 222 billion cubic
feet (bcf) of gas from storage during the week ended Feb. 4. That was the first time withdrawals topped
200 bcf for four weeks in a row since February 2014.
Last week's withdrawal matched the 222-bcf decline that analysts forecast in a Reuters poll and
compares with a decline of 174 bcf in the same week last year and a five-year (2017-2021) average decline
of 150 bcf. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL
The total amount of gas in storage fell to 2.101 trillion cubic feet (tcf), or 9.3% below the
five-year average of 2.316 tcf for this time of the year.
After weeks of near record volatility, front-month gas futures NGc1 for March delivery fell 11.6
cents, or 2.9%, to $3.893 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) at 10:33 a.m. EST (1533 GMT), putting
the contract on track for its lowest close since Jan. 20.
Data provider Refinitiv said output in the U.S. Lower 48 states fell from a record 97.3 billion cubic
feet per day (bcfd) in December to 93.9 bcfd in January and 91.2 bcfd in February as wells in several
producing regions froze, including the Permian in Texas and New Mexico, the Bakken in North Dakota and
the Appalachia in Pennsylvania, West Virginia and Ohio. urn:newsml:reuters.com:*:nL1N2TJ23J
Output has been rising almost daily - hitting 94.2 bcfd on Wednesday - since it dropped to 86.3 bcfd
during a winter storm on Feb. 4, its lowest since February 2021.
With cold weather moderating, Refinitiv projected average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would
drop from 130.6 bcfd this week to 120.9 bcfd next week. The forecast for next week was lower than
Refinitiv's outlook on Wednesday.
The amount of gas flowing to U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants rose to an average of
12.5 bcfd so far in February, which would top January's monthly record of 12.4 bcfd, as liquefaction
trains at Venture Global LNG's Calcasieu Pass plant in Louisiana enter service. A vessel arrived near
Calcasieu on Monday and could pick up the plant's first LNG cargo this week. urn:newsml:reuters.com:*:nL1N2UI1T5
Traders said demand for U.S. LNG would remain strong so long as global gas TRNLTTFMc1 JKMc1 ,
prices keep trading well above U.S. futures as utilities around the world scramble for cargoes to meet
surging demand in Asia and replenish low inventories in Europe - especially with the threat that Russia
could invade Ukraine and cut gas supplies to Europe. NG/GB urn:newsml:reuters.com:*:nL1N2UD16S urn:newsml:reuters.com:*:nL8N2RT64U urn:newsml:reuters.com:*:nL1N2U52QX
Russia provides 30%-40% of Europe's gas supplies, totaling about 16.3 bcfd in 2021, according to
analysts and U.S. energy data. urn:newsml:reuters.com:*:nL8N2RT64U urn:newsml:reuters.com:*:nL1N2U52QX
Week ended Week ended Year ago Five-
Feb. Jan. 28 Feb. 4 year
4(Forecast) (Actual) avera
ge
Feb.
4
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): -222 -268 -174 -150
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): 2,101 2,323 2,542 2,316
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average -9.3% -5.8%
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) Current Day Prior Day This Month Prior Five Year
Last Year Year Average
Avera (2017-2021)
ge
2021
Henry Hub NGc1 4.01 4.01 2.92 3.73 2.89
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 25.32 24.52 6.14 16.04 7.49
Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 24.72 25.31 7.36 18.00 8.95
Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast Current Day Prior Day Prior Year 10-Ye 30-Year
ar Norm
Norm
U.S. GFS HDDs 363 392 556 403 393
U.S. GFS CDDs 4 3 5 6 5
U.S. GFS TDDs 367 395 561 409 398
Refinitiv U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
Prior Week Current Week Next Week This Five-Year
Week Average For
Last Month
Year
U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production 93.1 91.1 92.4 87.8 83.3
U.S. Imports from Canada 9.3 9.8 9.2 9.2 8.9
U.S. LNG Imports 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2
Total U.S. Supply 102.5 100.6 101.7 97.1 92.4
U.S. Demand (bcfd)
U.S. Exports to Canada 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.0 2.7
U.S. Exports to Mexico 5.8 5.4 5.7 6.0 4.8
U.S. LNG Exports 12.2 12.5 12.1 10.5 4.7
U.S. Commercial 19.4 17.9 16.7 20.5 15.6
U.S. Residential 33.2 30.0 27.1 34.7 26.1
U.S. Power Plant 28.6 29.3 24.4 30.3 26.3
U.S. Industrial 25.9 25.6 25.0 26.7 24.5
U.S. Plant Fuel 4.6 4.5 4.6 4.4 4.6
U.S. Pipe Distribution 3.1 2.9 2.7 2.9 3.1
U.S. Vehicle Fuel 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Total U.S. Consumption 114.9 110.3 100.6 119.6 100.3
Total U.S. Demand 135.3 130.6 120.9 138.1 112.5
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA
Week ended Week ended Week ended Week Week ended
Feb 11 Feb 4 Jan 28 ended Jan 14
Jan
21
Wind 12 11 9 11 10
Solar 2 2 2 2 2
Hydro 7 6 7 7 7
Other 2 2 2 2 2
Petroleum 1 1 1 1 1
Natural Gas 33 33 35 33 34
Coal 24 25 26 25 24
Nuclear 19 19 19 19 20
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Hub Current Day Prior Day
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL 4.13 4.30
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL 4.05 4.50
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL 4.45 4.70
Dominion South NG-PCN-APP-SNL 3.65 3.88
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL 4.76 4.07
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL 7.22 9.32
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL 3.91 4.17
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL 3.57 3.76
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL 3.13 3.40
SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Hub Current Day
New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL 72.00 104.75
PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL 27.25 29.50
Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL 35.25 38.50
Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL 36.50 37.25
Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL 37.25 40.75
SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL 38.50 40.50
(Reporting by Scott DiSavino
Editing by Bernadette Baum and Mark Porter)
((scott.disavino@thomsonreuters.com; +1 332 219 1922; Reuters Messaging:
scott.disavino.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net))
((For Refinitiv type ENERGY in Eikon search bar and then go to the GAS dropdown and the NORTH AMERICA dropdown or see: cpurl://apps.cp./cms/?pageid=usa-gas
For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the Reuters Eikon terminal.
For graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/rigcount/index.html
For next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: 0#SNL-NG
For next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: 0#SNL-PWR
For U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: NGAS/POLL
For U.S. nuclear power outages, see: NUKE/
For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: NWRFC
For U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: http://tmsnrt.rs/2eT9k44
For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: USGAS
For the U.S. power speed guide, see: USPOWER
To determine CFTC managed money net position add (NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023651MNET ) plus (ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023391MNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 303565BMNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub penultimate gas swaps 303565CMNET divided by four)
NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023651
NYMEX Henry Hub futures only 0#1CFTC023651
ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023391
NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 0#3CFTC03565B
NYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps 0#3CFTC03565C ))
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