U.S. natgas futures ease to 3-week low ahead of storage report
10/02/2022 13:11
Feb 10 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures eased to a three-week low on Thursday as the market awaits
direction from a federal report expected to show last week's storage build was much bigger than normal for a
fourth week in a row due to a cold start to 2022.
Traders said prices were down a bit on forecasts for less cold weather and lower heating demand over the
next two weeks than previously expected.
Analysts forecast U.S. utilities pulled a massive 222 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas from storage during
the colder than normal week ended Feb. 4. That compares with a decline of 174 bcf in the same week last year
and a five-year (2017-2021) average decline of 150 bcf. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL
That would also be the first time withdrawals topped 200 bcf for four weeks in a row since February 2014.
If correct, last week's withdrawal would cut stockpiles to 2.101 trillion cubic feet (tcf), or 9.3% below
the five-year average of 2.316 tcf for this time of the year.
After weeks of near record volatility, front-month gas futures NGc1 for March delivery fell 2.7 cents,
or 0.7%, to $3.982 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) at 7:41 a.m. EST (1241 GMT), putting the contract
on track for its lowest close since Jan. 20.
Data provider Refinitiv said output in the U.S. Lower 48 states fell from a record 97.3 billion cubic feet
per day (bcfd) in December to 93.9 bcfd in January and 91.2 bcfd in February after wells in several producing
regions froze, including the Permian in Texas and New Mexico, the Bakken in North Dakota and the Appalachia in
Pennsylvania, West Virginia and Ohio. urn:newsml:reuters.com:*:nL1N2TJ23J
Output has been rising almost daily - hitting 94.2 bcfd on Wednesday - since it dropped to 86.3 bcfd
during a winter storm on Feb. 4, its lowest since February 2021.
With cold weather moderating, Refinitiv projected average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would drop
from 130.6 bcfd this week to 120.9 bcfd next week. The forecast for next week was lower than Refinitiv's
outlook on Wednesday.
The amount of gas flowing to U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants rose to an average of 12.5
bcfd so far in February, which would top January's monthly record of 12.4 bcfd, as liquefaction trains at
Venture Global LNG's Calcasieu Pass plant in Louisiana enter service. A vessel arrived near Calcasieu on
Monday and could pick up the plant's first LNG cargo this week. urn:newsml:reuters.com:*:nL1N2UI1T5
Traders said demand for U.S. LNG would remain strong so long as global gas prices keep trading well above
U.S. futures as utilities around the world scramble for cargoes to meet surging demand in Asia and replenish
low inventories in Europe - especially with the threat that Russia could invade Ukraine and cut gas supplies
to Europe. NG/GB urn:newsml:reuters.com:*:nL1N2UD16S urn:newsml:reuters.com:*:nL8N2RT64U urn:newsml:reuters.com:*:nL1N2U52QX
Russia provides 30%-40% of Europe's gas supplies, totaling about 16.3 bcfd in 2021, according to analysts
and U.S. energy data. urn:newsml:reuters.com:*:nL8N2RT64U urn:newsml:reuters.com:*:nL1N2U52QX
Week ended Week ended Year ago Five-year
Feb. Jan. 28 Feb. 4 average
4(Forecast) (Actual) Feb. 4
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): -222 -268 -174 -150
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): 2,101 2,323 2,542 2,316
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average -9.3% -5.8%
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) Current Day Prior Day This Month Prior Year Five Year
Last Year Average Average
2021 (2017-2021)
Henry Hub NGc1 4.01 4.01 2.92 3.73 2.89
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 25.32 24.52 6.14 16.04 7.49
Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 24.72 25.31 7.36 18.00 8.95
Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast Current Day Prior Day Prior Year 10-Year 30-Year
Norm Norm
U.S. GFS HDDs 363 392 556 403 393
U.S. GFS CDDs 4 3 5 6 5
U.S. GFS TDDs 367 395 561 409 398
Refinitiv U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
Prior Week Current Week Next Week This Week Five-Year
Last Year Average For
Month
U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production 93.1 91.1 92.4 87.8 83.3
U.S. Imports from Canada 9.3 9.8 9.2 9.2 8.9
U.S. LNG Imports 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2
Total U.S. Supply 102.5 100.6 101.7 97.1 92.4
U.S. Demand (bcfd)
U.S. Exports to Canada 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.0 2.7
U.S. Exports to Mexico 5.8 5.4 5.7 6.0 4.8
U.S. LNG Exports 12.2 12.5 12.1 10.5 4.7
U.S. Commercial 19.4 17.9 16.7 20.5 15.6
U.S. Residential 33.2 30.0 27.1 34.7 26.1
U.S. Power Plant 28.6 29.3 24.4 30.3 26.3
U.S. Industrial 25.9 25.6 25.0 26.7 24.5
U.S. Plant Fuel 4.6 4.5 4.6 4.4 4.6
U.S. Pipe Distribution 3.1 2.9 2.7 2.9 3.1
U.S. Vehicle Fuel 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Total U.S. Consumption 114.9 110.3 100.6 119.6 100.3
Total U.S. Demand 135.3 130.6 120.9 138.1 112.5
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA
Week ended Week ended Week ended Week ended Week ended
Feb 11 Feb 4 Jan 28 Jan 21 Jan 14
Wind 12 11 9 11 10
Solar 2 2 2 2 2
Hydro 7 6 7 7 7
Other 2 2 2 2 2
Petroleum 1 1 1 1 1
Natural Gas 33 33 35 33 34
Coal 24 25 26 25 24
Nuclear 19 19 19 19 20
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Hub Current Day Prior Day
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL 4.13 4.30
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL 4.05 4.50
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL 4.45 4.70
Dominion South NG-PCN-APP-SNL 3.65 3.88
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL 4.76 4.07
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL 7.22 9.32
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL 3.91 4.17
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL 3.57 3.76
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL 3.13 3.40
SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Hub Current Day
New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL 72.00 104.75
PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL 27.25 29.50
Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL 35.25 38.50
Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL 36.50 37.25
Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL 37.25 40.75
SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL 38.50 40.50
(Reporting by Scott DiSavino
Editing by Bernadette Baum)
((scott.disavino@thomsonreuters.com; +1 332 219 1922; Reuters Messaging:
scott.disavino.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net))
((For Refinitiv type ENERGY in Eikon search bar and then go to the GAS dropdown and the NORTH AMERICA dropdown or see: cpurl://apps.cp./cms/?pageid=usa-gas
For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the Reuters Eikon terminal.
For graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/rigcount/index.html
For next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: 0#SNL-NG
For next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: 0#SNL-PWR
For U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: NGAS/POLL
For U.S. nuclear power outages, see: NUKE/
For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: NWRFC
For U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: http://tmsnrt.rs/2eT9k44
For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: USGAS
For the U.S. power speed guide, see: USPOWER
To determine CFTC managed money net position add (NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023651MNET ) plus (ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023391MNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 303565BMNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub penultimate gas swaps 303565CMNET divided by four)
NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023651
NYMEX Henry Hub futures only 0#1CFTC023651
ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023391
NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 0#3CFTC03565B
NYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps 0#3CFTC03565C ))
Recent news on CKX Lands
See all newsBrief: CKX Lands - Continues To Explore Sale Of Remaining Assets And Potential Sale Of Company - SEC Filing
Shell's legal fight against Venture Global focuses on communication with engineer, court transcript shows
Venture Global seeks authorization for Calcasieu Pass, TransCameron Projects (updated)
US LNG exports to rise at smallest pace since 2016
US LNG output dips in June on shorter month, plant maintenance